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## What is the probability of a high one-year return

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Instructions:What is the probability of a high one-year return

Data on the 30 largest stock and balanced funds provided one year and five year percentage returns for the period ending March 31, 2000 (The Wall Street Journal, April 10, 2000). Suppose we consider a one year return in excess of 50% to be high and a five year return in excess of 300% to be high. Nine of the fund had one year returns in excess of 50% and seven of the funds had five year returns in excess of 300%, and five of the funds had both one year

returns in excess of 50% and five year returns in excess of 300%

- What is the probability of a high one year return and what is the probability of a high five year return?
- What is the probability of both a high one year return and a high five year return?
- What is the probability of neither a high one year return nor a high five year return?

The Dallas IRS auditing staff, concerned with identifying potentially fraudulent tax returns, believe that the probability of finding a fraudulent return given that the return contains deductions for contributions exceeding the IRS standard is .20. Given that the deductions for contributions do not exceed the IRS standard, the probability of a fraudulent return decreases to .02. If 8% of all returns exceed the IRS standard for deductions due to contributions,

what is the best estimate of the percentage of fraudulent returns?

Must show any calculations, facts or reasoning as to how you came up with the answers. Work must be done on excel spreadsheet; work must be original. All questions must be answered

What is the probability of a high one-year return

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Excellent Quality95-100%

Introduction45-41 points

The background and significance of the problem and a clear statement of the research purpose is provided. The search history is mentioned.

Literature Support91-84 points

The background and significance of the problem and a clear statement of the research purpose is provided. The search history is mentioned.

Methodology58-53 points

Content is well-organized with headings for each slide and bulleted lists to group related material as needed. Use of font, color, graphics, effects, etc. to enhance readability and presentation content is excellent. Length requirements of 10 slides/pages or less is met.

Average Score50-85%

40-38 points

More depth/detail for the background and significance is needed, or the research detail is not clear. No search history information is provided.

83-76 points

Review of relevant theoretical literature is evident, but there is little integration of studies into concepts related to problem. Review is partially focused and organized. Supporting and opposing research are included. Summary of information presented is included. Conclusion may not contain a biblical integration.

52-49 points

Content is somewhat organized, but no structure is apparent. The use of font, color, graphics, effects, etc. is occasionally detracting to the presentation content. Length requirements may not be met.

Poor Quality0-45%

37-1 points

The background and/or significance are missing. No search history information is provided.

75-1 points

Review of relevant theoretical literature is evident, but there is no integration of studies into concepts related to problem. Review is partially focused and organized. Supporting and opposing research are not included in the summary of information presented. Conclusion does not contain a biblical integration.

48-1 points

There is no clear or logical organizational structure. No logical sequence is apparent. The use of font, color, graphics, effects etc. is often detracting to the presentation content. Length requirements may not be met

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